Unit Plan 16 (Grade 6 Science): Natural Hazard Forecasting

Focus: Analyze natural hazard data and distribution maps to forecast where future earthquakes, volcanoes, storms, and other hazards are likely to occur and propose basic mitigation strategies.

Grade Level: 6

Subject Area: Science (Earth & Space Science — Earth’s Systems & Human Impacts)

Total Unit Duration: 5 sessions (one week), 50–60 minutes per session

I. Introduction

In this unit, students become “hazard forecasters” by studying patterns of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, storms, and other natural hazards on maps and simple data sets. They learn that hazards are not random—they cluster along plate boundaries, coastlines, and certain climate regions. Using maps, graphs, and case studies, students practice making evidence-based forecasts about where future events are more likely and explore how mitigation strategies (e.g., evacuation routes, building codes, warning systems) can reduce risk, aligned with MS-ESS2-3 and MS-ESS3-2.

Essential Questions

• How are natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, and floods distributed across Earth, and what patterns do we see?
• How can data and maps help us forecast where certain hazards are more likely to occur in the future?
• What is the difference between a natural hazard and a catastrophic event, and how do people influence the level of risk?
• How can communities use hazard forecasts to design effective mitigation strategies and reduce impacts?
• Why is it important to base hazard forecasts and decisions on evidence, not just on single events or stories?

II. Objectives and Standards

Learning Objectives — Students will be able to:

1. Identify major types of natural hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, wildfires, severe storms) and describe how they relate to geoscience processes and Earth systems.
2. Analyze and interpret hazard distribution maps and simple data tables/graphs to find patterns in where and how often hazards occur (clusters, belts, coastal vs inland).
3. Use these patterns to make evidence-based forecasts about where specific hazards are more likely to happen in the future, aligned with MS-ESS2-3.
4. Explain how hazard forecasts can inform mitigation strategies, such as warning systems, land-use planning, and building codes, aligned with MS-ESS3-2.
5. Create a short Hazard Forecast & Mitigation Brief for a chosen region, using maps and data to justify their forecast and recommend at least one mitigation action.

Standards Alignment — 6th Grade (NGSS-based custom)

• MS-ESS2-3 — Analyze and interpret data on the distribution of natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods) to forecast future catastrophic events.
  • In this unit: students use global/regional hazard maps and data to describe patterns and make forecasts of likely hazard zones.
• MS-ESS3-2 — Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies and mitigation to reduce impacts.
  • In this unit: students connect forecasts to mitigation strategies (e.g., early warning systems, evacuation routes, building design).

Success Criteria — Student Language

• I can name several natural hazards and explain that they are related to Earth processes and weather/climate systems.
• I can read hazard maps and graphs to find patterns in where certain hazards happen most often.
• I can use those patterns to make a reasonable, evidence-based forecast about where a hazard is more likely to occur.
• I can explain how my forecast can help people choose mitigation strategies to reduce risk and impacts.
• I can write or present a Hazard Forecast & Mitigation Brief that clearly uses data and maps as evidence.