Lesson Plan (Grades 9-12): Pandemic Data Lab - Modeling Spread, Interpreting Graphs, and Debating Public Health Decisions

Focus: Engage students in an interdisciplinary pandemic data lab where they analyze infection-rate graphs, model linear vs. exponential growth, interpret data trends, and evaluate evidence-based public health decisions. Students connect math, biology, statistics, and civic reasoning as they examine how disease spread affects communities and how leaders use data to make difficult choices.

Grade Level: 9-12

Subject Area: Science • Math/Statistics • Civics/Public Policy • ELA • Inquiry/Skills

Total Unit Duration: 1 core lesson with 2 optional extension lessons

I. Introduction

Students become public health analysts in a Pandemic Data Lab where numbers, graphs, models, and human consequences all matter. In the core lesson, students examine simplified or historical disease-spread data, interpret graphs of infection rates, compare linear and exponential growth, and identify how patterns change when interventions or behavior changes occur. Rather than treating a pandemic only as a health topic, students analyze it as a real-world problem that requires data literacy, mathematical modeling, scientific reasoning, and careful civic decision-making.

Students also consider how public health decisions involve trade-offs. A graph may show rising cases, but communities must still weigh school, work, healthcare capacity, personal freedom, economic impact, and risk to vulnerable groups. The lesson ends with students using evidence to defend a public health recommendation in a short written argument, briefing, or structured debate.

Essential Questions

• How can graphs and models help us understand the spread of disease?
• What is the difference between linear growth and exponential growth, and why does it matter in a pandemic?
• How can data help communities make public health decisions?
• What are the strengths and limits of using mathematical models to predict real-world events?
• How should leaders balance evidence, uncertainty, and community impact when making public health recommendations?

II. Objectives and Standards

Learning Objectives — Students will be able to:

1. Interpret graphs and data tables showing infection rates, case totals, or transmission trends.
2. Distinguish between linear and exponential growth using graphs, tables, and real-world context.
3. Use simplified data to model disease spread and explain how quickly cases can increase under different conditions.
4. Analyze how interventions, behavior changes, or public health policies may affect patterns in the data.
5. Evaluate the strengths and limitations of a model or dataset when making public health conclusions.
6. Develop and defend an evidence-based public health recommendation using data, reasoning, and clear communication.

Standards Alignment

• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSF-LE.A.1
  • Distinguish between situations that can be modeled with linear functions and with exponential functions.
• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSF-LE.A.2
  • Construct linear and exponential functions, including arithmetic and geometric sequences, given a graph, description of a relationship, or input-output pairs.
• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSF-LE.B.5
  • Interpret the parameters in a linear or exponential function in terms of a context.
• CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS-ID.B.6
  • Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot and describe how the variables are related.
• NGSS HS-ETS1-3
  • Evaluate a solution to a complex real-world problem based on prioritized criteria and trade-offs that account for a range of constraints.
• NGSS HS-LS2-1
  • Use mathematical and/or computational representations to support explanations of factors that affect populations over time.
• CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.RI.9-10.7 / RI.11-12.7
  • Analyze and evaluate information presented in different media or formats, including visually and quantitatively, as well as in words.
• CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.W.9-10.1 / W.11-12.1
  • Write arguments to support claims using valid reasoning and relevant and sufficient evidence.
• CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.SL.9-10.4 / SL.11-12.4
  • Present information, findings, and supporting evidence clearly, concisely, and logically.

Success Criteria — Student Language

• I can read a pandemic-related graph and explain what the data shows.
• I can tell whether a pattern looks more linear or exponential and explain why.
• I can use data to make a prediction or describe a trend.
• I can explain how public health decisions may change the shape of a graph.
• I can defend a recommendation using evidence from graphs, tables, or readings.